We use Statcast data during the season to highlight the massive outliers in expected stats minus actual ones. There is a problem now with so many games in the books — massive outliers just don’t exist.
And this is a good thing. It’s a validation of our process. If the expected stats had no predictive value, there would be about the same number of outliers to the same degree at any point in time. The narrowing we see now shows that actual hitting and expected hitting correlate more strongly as plate appearances increase – exactly what we’d expect.
Advertisement
But we can still find value in Statcast splits. Time is running short. The relatively small number of games that remain in the season make it more likely that unexpected players can have an outsized impact.
Let’s look at batting average, for example.
Among the August leaders in average are no-names such as Christian Arroyo (.364 actual average and .323 expected). Arroyo is 16% rostered on Yahoo. Donovan Solano is hitting .341 this month (.278 expected) and is 8% rostered. Joey Meneses is .333 (.280 expected average) but also with a .583 slugging (expected is a still-robust .534) — and Meneses is at just 26%.
All of the above are getting regular playing time. If you need average, you know they’re currently hot. Would you rather, right now, have a hot hitter or a cold one? It’s not entirely random how a batter hits for average. There could be injuries involved (or good health if he’s hitting well). He could be slumping or locked in and that only needs to continue for another month. This isn’t like picking up a hot player in April for the remaining 135 games. You have to lean into the randomness of remaining stats and focus on who is playing. Hot guys are going to be playing.
Conversely here are some widely-rostered laggards, with the expected stats via Statcast/Baseball Savant in parens:
All of these guys are about 90% rostered or higher, except Torres, who is 77% (for some reason). If you bench or replace these players, you’re not crazy. I’m not telling you to – there are too many variables. But no one could rail against it; it’s not like you’re cutting Juan Soto.
The two best hitters in August average are widely rostered but not players generally viewed as being key assets heading down the stretch of the fantasy baseball season. Jeff McNeil of the Mets is hitting .402 in August (expected .323). Nathaniel Lowe is .392 (expected .349). Lowe also has an expected slugging of .628 in August. He’s just a monster right now.
Advertisement
One player highly rostered, according to Yahoo, has rebounded and rewarded his owners with solid August hitting. I would expect Los Angeles Dodgers’ IF Max Muncy to continue to hit well, too. He’s .296 in average this month (expected .256) with a .630 slugging (expected .556); he has seven roundtrippers.
I’m happy/relieved to report that Christian Walker is finally providing actual return on his investment, instead of merely dominating the Statcast leaderboard. We’ve been telling you to get him all year and even for most of last year. Well, for August, he’s hitting .319 with a .630 slugging, actually better than his still great expected stats of .284/.558.
Lars Nootbaar’s full-season stats do not reflect his recent spate of prodigious raking. He’s hit .294 but his OBP is .425 both expected and actual. He’s about 100 points of slugging over his head this month (.565 vs. the expected .457), but that’s okay. He’s leading off and is a solid bet for whatever your league uses in average (standard or, especially, on-base). Nootbaar is 53% rostered.
Many GMs are transitioning to football or resigned to just not competing for a title. So it’s a lot less crowded when it comes to picking up players. Smart GMs in September remain aggressive with the more robust waiver wire and do not hesitate to make moves.
For example, the time has come to just cut Josh Hader loose.
Look, I know it makes no sense. We hold out hope that Hader rebounds. We don’t want him to do it on another team and God forbid a team with whom we’re competing. But Hader is just a team-killer right now. In August, the entirety of his career with the Padres, he’s pitched 4.2 innings and allowed 12 earned runs (23.13 ERA) and 19 hits plus walks (4.13 WHIP). He allowed three or more runs three times in just seven appearances, capped by six earned runs allowed on Sunday. Pick up a fill-in closer like Rafael Montero, who is expected to have the job for at least 10 more days with Ryan Pressly out with a neck injury. Or Brandon Hughes, who Closer Monkey moved into the main role and who has pitched great despite being a lefty, not ideal for closing.
Advertisement
Whatever you do, get Hader out of there before he kills again.
Craig Kimbrel: “Im the worst closer in the NL West”
Josh Hader: pic.twitter.com/9JncL17qoy
— 𝘾𝙖𝙢 (Extend Meetch) (@Camden0044) August 28, 2022
I want to close with an important note about catchers. Only six qualified for the minimum 75+ plate appearances we filtered. And the No. 1 catcher on the list is not nearly universally rostered. That would be Sean Murphy. His OBP this month is .442 with an expected .413 and his average, if you play that way, is .348 with an expected .314. The slugging is .591/.593, dealer’s choice. He had four homers in August entering play on Tuesday. If Murphy is available in your league, especially a weekly league with OBP, he should be rostered and started.
(Top photo: Jeff Curry-USA TODAY Sports)
ncG1vNJzZmismJqutbTLnquim16YvK57km5rcnBianxzfJFrZmlwX2h9cL%2FTmqucmaOpeqetza2YrLFdl660scGao6VlnJa%2FtHnNqKatmpGWv3A%3D